Muslim-Muslim Ticket Debate: Why Analysts Say Only Health Or Death Can Stop Tinubu In 2027
The 2027 elections may still seem distant, but Nigeria’s political temperature is already rising. At the center of the storm is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s controversial Muslim-Muslim ticket, a strategy that helped him clinch victory in 2023 but continues to spark heated debates across the country.
According to renowned political analyst Jide Ojo, Tinubu’s re-election chances are almost guaranteed — unless life throws in an unexpected twist. “The only thing that can stop Bola Ahmed Tinubu from being re-elected in 2027 is death or serious health issues,” Ojo boldly stated in an interview.
The Strategy Behind the 2023 Victory
Tinubu is no stranger to political gambits. In 2023, he defied critics by pairing with former Borno Governor Kashim Shettima, creating a Muslim-Muslim ticket that many predicted would backfire. Instead, it delivered.
How? Ojo explains that Tinubu leaned on opinion polls and private surveys to guide his moves. He calculated that Northern Muslim voters — the largest voting bloc — would swing his way if he resisted the pressure for a Christian running mate. Meanwhile, Christian minorities in the North-Central were already divided, with Peter Obi pulling strong support.
Tinubu’s decision wasn’t about religion per se; it was about cold, strategic mathematics:
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Secure at least 25% in each state.
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Appeal to emotions, not just policies.
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Neutralize opposition strongholds by dividing their bases.
And the formula worked.
Carrot-and-Stick Politics – Tinubu’s Trademark
Tinubu’s survival in politics, Ojo argues, comes from his ability to wield both a carrot and a stick. He neutralizes potential rivals by co-opting them with positions or influence, while keeping a sharp eye on opposition threats.
This was evident in his recent appointment of Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, a Christian northerner, as APC National Chairman — a move aimed at balancing the narrative and silencing critics of the Muslim-Muslim ticket. For Tinubu, alliances are never permanent; they are tactical tools.
Governance and 2027 Calculations
Ojo predicts that Tinubu’s governance strategy itself is built around re-election:
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First two years → reforms in economy, agriculture, and healthcare.
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Final two years → heavy investments in infrastructure, conditional cash transfers, and grassroots bailouts to win back struggling Nigerians.
In short, the president knows voters forgive hardship if they see last-minute relief before the polls.
Opposition in Disarray – Tinubu’s Advantage
The weakness of opposition parties has also strengthened Tinubu’s hand. The PDP remains fragmented, while smaller parties like ADC are struggling to remain relevant. Unless there’s a shock alliance — for example, between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar — the APC will likely retain the advantage.
The Warning From Northern Groups
But not everyone agrees with Ojo’s certainty. The Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum (NENF) has strongly warned Tinubu against repeating the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2027. They argue that the 2023 election alienated millions of Christians in the North, costing APC key states like Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, and even the FCT.
Their warning is clear: APC risks losing the Middle Belt if it ignores religious balance again. And in a tightly contested election, those votes could tip the scale.
Final Thoughts
Tinubu has always been more of a chess player than a statesman — studying polls, weighing alliances, and playing the long game. For now, the numbers seem to favor him, and analysts like Jide Ojo believe only fate can derail his second-term bid.
But politics is rarely that straightforward. Nigeria’s growing hardship, religious fault lines, and the possibility of an opposition alliance mean 2027 is far from a done deal. Tinubu may be a master strategist, but as history shows, even the sharpest plans can collapse under the weight of shifting realities.
