2027: APC Forum Warns Tinubu Against Dropping Shettima, Says Move Could Cost 80% Of Northern Muslim Votes

ABUJA, Nigeria – With the 2027 general election slowly coming into view, internal debates within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) are intensifying over whether President Bola Tinubu should retain Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate.

On Saturday, the North-Central APC Forum issued a strong warning, saying that any attempt to alter the Muslim-Muslim ticket that brought the Tinubu-Shettima duo to power in 2023 could cost the President up to 80 percent of northern Muslim votes.

The warning came in a statement signed by the Forum’s Chairman, Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, who was also a member of the APC campaign council during the last presidential election.

Pressure Mounts on Tinubu Over Running Mate Choice

Since Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, some stakeholders and political groups have urged him to consider a different ticket ahead of his reelection bid. Critics argue that the Muslim-Muslim ticket, though successful in 2023, alienated many Christian communities in the North, particularly in the Middle Belt, where the APC lost key battleground states such as Plateau and Nasarawa, as well as the Federal Capital Territory.

Just last week, the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum, led by Dominic Alancha, cautioned that the APC risks deeper losses in 2027 if it repeats the same formula. Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today, Alancha stressed that Christian communities in the North felt sidelined and could consolidate opposition against the ruling party if Tinubu insists on retaining Shettima.

North-Central APC Forum Pushes Back

Responding, however, the North-Central APC Forum rejected the idea of dropping Shettima, calling it “a needless risk.”

“The adoption of the Muslim-Muslim ticket was purely a strategy to win elections,” the group stated. “It does not amount to marginalization of Christians or any other religion.”

The Forum argued that Tinubu’s government has already included key Middle Belt Christians in powerful positions, citing the appointment of APC National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, and Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume.

“With such representation, we can guarantee that Tinubu will get 90 percent of votes from the North-Central,” Zazzaga declared, insisting that performance in office, rather than the religious identities of candidates, will determine Tinubu’s fate in 2027.

“They Didn’t Vote for Him in 2023, They Won’t in 2027”

The Forum further claimed that groups pushing Tinubu to abandon the Muslim-Muslim ticket were largely opposition sympathizers who supported Peter Obi of the Labour Party in 2023.

“Those communities that voted for Obi in 2023 are unlikely to switch to Tinubu in 2027, even if he replaces Shettima with a Christian,” the statement read. “So, why risk alienating his strongest base in the North?”

The Forum accused critics of engaging in “mischief” aimed at weakening Tinubu’s reelection chances, saying:

“The truth is most of these people are not Tinubu’s supporters. They are only trying to deceive him into dropping those who worked tirelessly for his victory in 2023.”

Concerns Over Marginalization of Northern Muslims

Beyond defending Shettima, the Forum also raised concerns that some individuals close to the President were neglecting northern Muslim communities while focusing political outreach primarily on northern Christians.

“This is counterproductive and will backfire,” Zazzaga warned. “If both Christians and Muslims feel neglected in 2027, Tinubu could lose support across board.”

Political Calculations Ahead of 2027

The controversy underscores the delicate balancing act Tinubu faces as he prepares for reelection. While the Muslim-Muslim ticket helped consolidate votes in the predominantly Muslim North during the 2023 race, it also cost the APC support in Christian-majority regions.

Analysts say the President will need to broaden his appeal to secure a second term, particularly in light of Nigeria’s worsening economic challenges, rising insecurity, and growing opposition coalitions.

“Religion will remain a factor in Nigerian politics, but ultimately, voters will judge Tinubu on his record,” said Dr. Kabiru Yusuf, a political analyst in Abuja. “If he can improve living standards, restore security, and stabilize the economy, the running mate debate may matter less than people think.”

Calls for Inclusive Politics

Civil society organizations have urged the APC to prioritize national unity and inclusivity. Groups like the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) have consistently voiced concerns that the Muslim-Muslim ticket entrenches religious imbalance in leadership.

On the other hand, APC loyalists argue that Tinubu’s administration has already reflected Nigeria’s diversity in cabinet appointments and that religion should not overshadow competence.

The Road Ahead

With less than two years to the 2027 polls, debates over Shettima’s future are expected to intensify. While the North-Central APC Forum insists that dropping him would be political suicide, others argue that keeping him could weaken Tinubu’s chances in Christian strongholds.

For now, President Tinubu has remained silent on the matter, focusing on governance. But as election season draws closer, the decision could become one of the most consequential of his presidency.